Nothing to See Here (Unless You Care About Mortgages)

Economic Indicators

CPI sits at 322.13 with Core CPI at 328.66 (as of July 2025). Annual inflation is holding at 2.7%. Inflation expectations are fairly tame: 2.59% (1 year), 2.13% (5 years), 2.11% (10 years), 2.30% (30 years).

The Federal Funds Rate remains at 4.33%, while Treasury yields are 3.93% (1Y), 3.85% (5Y), and 4.33% (10Y).

👉 What this means for you: Steady inflation and rates = no big surprises (yet). Borrowing costs remain high, so if you’re hoping for relief on loans or CDs yielding even more, don’t expect fireworks in the short term.

Market Trends

The S&P 500 dipped slightly, down 0.02%, now at 643.3. Mortgage rates are sitting at 6.58% for a 30-year fixed, just a hair lower than earlier in the year — but still high compared to 2024. The 10-Year Treasury is also at 4.33%, signaling long-term borrowing costs remain elevated.

👉 What this means for you: The stock market is basically shrugging today. If you’re in the housing market, the difference between 6.58% and 7% feels real, but it’s still pricey compared to pre-2022 levels.

Key Developments

The Fed is expected to keep rates steady until inflation drops back closer to 2%. With annual inflation at 2.7%, they’re not in a rush to cut. The overall economic picture remains strong enough that the Fed doesn’t feel pressure to move quickly.

👉 What this means for you: Translation — don’t bank on lower interest rates this fall. The Fed is still playing defense, waiting for inflation to cool further.

Market Outlook

We’re in a holding pattern: stable inflation, flat stock market, high-but-not-worsening mortgage rates. The Fed’s confidence in the economy means stability, but it also means borrowing costs will stay elevated for a while longer.

👉 Bottom line: Expect more of the same — fine for savers, frustrating for borrowers, and a “meh” day for the markets.