Weekend Market Wrap — August 9, 2025
The markets may be closed for the weekend, but here’s where things stood when the closing bell rang on Friday — plus the big themes from the week and what to watch next.
Inflation: Steady but still on the radar
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 321.5, with core CPI (stripping out food and energy) slightly higher at 327.6. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) — another inflation yardstick — came in at 126.56, with core PCE at 125.93.
Annual inflation held at 2.7% for the 12 months ending in June. The Fed’s not panicking, but they’re still watching.
What this means for you and your wallet:
Prices aren’t skyrocketing, but they’re not falling either. Day-to-day costs might feel stable for now, but the Fed’s next move on rates will hinge on whether this stability sticks.
Rates, yields, and mortgages
- Federal Funds Rate: 4.33%
- Treasury yields: 1 year at 3.90%, 5 year at 3.77%, 10 year at 4.22%
- 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.63%
The housing story made headlines this week: mortgage applications to buy a home jumped 9% from the prior week and were 25% higher than the same time last year — a rush sparked by a brief dip in rates.
What this means for you and your wallet:
If you’re house-hunting, you’re not alone — even small dips in rates are bringing buyers off the sidelines. Competition could heat up fast if rates ease again. On the savings side, short-term Treasuries and CDs are still offering solid returns.
Stocks end the week higher
The S&P 500 closed at 637.18, up 0.69% on Friday. Inflation expectations were calm:
- 1 year: 2.79%
- 5 year: 2.37%
- 10 year: 2.33%
- 30 year: 2.44%
The dollar was steady after giving back some ground earlier in the week on payroll data.
What this means for you and your wallet:
If you’re invested in a broad stock index fund, you likely saw a small bump this week. The stable inflation outlook is giving markets room to breathe, which could keep stocks supported in the short term.
What to watch next week
The big one: Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.
It’s one of the last major data points the Fed will see before deciding on its next move for interest rates — and whatever they decide will ripple through mortgages, savings yields, and currency values.
What this means for you and your wallet:
CPI day can swing markets hard. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, expect rate cut hopes to cool — which could keep borrowing costs higher for longer. A softer number might give both stocks and bond markets a boost.
Bottom line for the week:
- Inflation is holding steady
- Housing demand perked up on a rate dip
- Stocks are in a generally positive mood
- All eyes now turn to next week’s CPI data